Leo Pareja Says the Housing Market Collapse “Already Happened.” Here’s How to Win in It.

Leo Pareja Says the Housing Market Collapse “Already Happened.” Here’s How to Win in It.

At eXpcon 2026, the AGNT CEO explained why the housing market correction hit transactions, not prices — and challenged agents to stop waiting for the old market to return.

Everyone seems to be waiting for the housing market to get back to “normal.”

Buyers are waiting for mortgage rates to fall. Sellers are waiting for multiple offers to return. And agents are wondering when transactions will finally pick up.

But what if the market everyone's waiting for isn't coming back?

At eXpcon 2026 in Salt Lake City, AGNT CEO Leo Pareja challenged that expectation during his annual CONTEXT housing market outlook.

“The collapse already happened three years ago. It happened in the transaction count,” Pareja told attendees.

Not in home prices. In the number of homes changing hands.

73 Million More Americans. Roughly the Same Home Sales.

In 1996, the United States had approximately 269 million people and recorded more than 4 million existing-home sales. Thirty years later, the population has grown to approximately 342 million, yet annual sales are again tracking near 4 million.

That's 73 million more people, with roughly the same number of transactions. In other words, despite significant population growth, home sales haven't kept pace.

Pareja warned that 2027 could bring even fewer than 4 million existing-home sales for the first time since 1995. But people still need to move. Jobs change, families grow, people retire, relocate and make decisions that don't follow a housing forecast.

“They are moving because life's making them move. And it always has been, and it always will,” Pareja said.

The question for agents is how to reach those buyers and sellers.

Stop Waiting for 3% Mortgage Rates

Remember when a mortgage rate below 3% seemed normal?

It wasn't. Since 1971, the average 30-year mortgage rate has been approximately 7.7%. The unusually low rates following the Great Recession and during the pandemic were exceptions.

Pareja cautioned that rates could reach 8% before returning to 5%. He also doesn't expect a 2010-style home-price collapse or a quick return to six million annual home sales.

For buyers comparing today's borrowing costs with 2020 and 2021, that's a difficult adjustment.

Agents can help by showing what monthly payments look like at current rates, discussing the risks of waiting, and helping sellers set prices based on today's comparable sales.

Those are conversations clients can act on, even when nobody knows where rates will go next.

National Headlines Don't Live on Your Street

In September, 246 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets recorded year-over-year price increases. Just 54 saw declines, down from 109 a year earlier.

But those national figures won't tell a seller whether their listing is overpriced or a buyer whether a particular neighborhood offers room to negotiate.

Clients want answers to specific questions: Should I sell now? What are homes actually closing for nearby? How much competition will I face?

An agent who knows local inventory, days on market and recent comparable sales can give them answers grounded in their community rather than a national average.

Work Is the Moat

Pareja's presentation wasn't just a market forecast. He challenged agents to commit to a 30-day sprint focused on the lead generation activities that fit their businesses.

• Social media: Post once a day for 30 days. Share neighborhood trends, answer buyer and seller questions or highlight what's happening locally. Leo committed to doing the challenge alongside agents.

• Sphere of influence: Have five real conversations every day with people in your network.

• Open houses: Set a target for the number you'll host. ShowGo can help eXp agents find listings available to hold open.

The point isn't to add every activity to an already full calendar. It's to choose a few sources of business and work them consistently.

Your 2027 Playbook

eXp University has CONTEXT resources to help agents put the outlook to use, including presentation materials, social-ready visuals and ICON Lead Mastery plans for Q4. Agents can also use AI tools to tailor their approach to their local markets.

Watch Leo's Full CONTEXT Market Outlook

Get the CONTEXT Resources and Agent Playbook

Leo closed with a reminder of what clients actually hire agents to do:

“We don't get paid to fill out contracts. We don't get paid to coordinate parties. We get paid to help people navigate one of the most important financial decisions of their lives.”

His 30-day challenge puts a practical question behind that message: What will you do this month to become the agent those clients call?